来源：华尔街见闻

作者：卜淑情

高盛表示，美元在实际贸易加权基础上被高估了大约14-15%，预计美联储明年将降息五次，推动美元指数下跌3%左右。

随着美联储降息预期持续升温，高盛对于美元的态度愈加悲观，称美元被高估了15%左右。

高盛Kamakshya Trivedi策略师团队在最新的报告中写道，尽管美元今年可能会出现下跌，但美元“在实际贸易加权基础上仍然被高估了大约14-15%，比2022年秋季高估的峰值低了约5-6个百分点”。

他们预计，美元将在未来12个月内贬值2-3%。截至发稿，美元指数报102.35，较10月份高点下跌了近5%。

高盛表示：

进入2024年，美元仍将保持相对强势。考虑到自上而下的全球宏观背景，包括显著的反通胀和强劲的增长，美联储非衰退性降息以及活跃的股市风险情绪，我们预计美元的强势将继续削弱，但仍相对缓慢。

在美联储释放迄今为止最强的降息信号后，高盛加入了“看跌美元”的大合唱。

高盛分析师Michael Cahill在上周五的一份报告中指出，在美联储发出将迅速实施“非衰退性降息”的信号后，高盛对其汇率预测进行了全面调整，预计美联储明年将降息五次，推动美元指数下跌3%左右。

法国兴业银行对于美元更加悲观，其首席全球外汇策略师Kit Juckes预计，2024年美元指数将下跌5%至97。

根据商品期货交易委员的数据，在上周议息会议召开之前，对冲基金和其他大型投机者自9月份以来首次转为美元净空头头寸。

编辑/tolk

Source: Wall Street News

Author: Bu Shuqing

Goldman Sachs said that the US dollar is overestimated by about 14-15% on the basis of actual trade weighting, and it is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates five times next year, driving the US dollar index down about 3%.

As expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut continue to heat up, Goldman Sachs's attitude towards the US dollar is becoming more pessimistic, saying that the US dollar is overvalued by about 15%.

Goldman Sachs Kamakshya Trivedi's team of strategists wrote in the latest report that although the US dollar may fall this year, the US dollar “is still overvalued by about 14-15% on the basis of actual trade weighting, which is about 5-6 percentage points lower than the peak of overestimation in the fall of 2022.”

They expect the dollar to depreciate by 2-3% over the next 12 months. As of press release, the US dollar index was reported at 102.35, down nearly 5% from the October high.

Goldman Sachs said:

Entering 2024, the US dollar will remain relatively strong. Given the global macro context from the top down, including significant anti-inflation and strong growth, the Fed's non-recessionary interest rate cuts, and active stock market risk sentiment, we expect the strength of the US dollar to continue to weaken, but still relatively slowly.

Goldman Sachs joined the “bearish dollar” chorus after the Federal Reserve released its strongest signal to cut interest rates so far.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Cahill pointed out in a report on Friday that after the Federal Reserve issued a signal that it would quickly implement a “non-recessionary interest rate cut,” Goldman Sachs made a comprehensive adjustment to its exchange rate forecast. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates five times next year, driving the US dollar index down about 3%.

Société Générale is even more pessimistic about the US dollar. Kit Juckes, its chief global foreign exchange strategist, predicts that the US dollar index will fall 5% to 97 in 2024.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, before the interest rate meeting last week, hedge funds and other large speculators switched to net short positions on the US dollar for the first time since September.

editor/tolk

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